Ocean warming threatens the viability of 60% of Antarctic ice shelves
Doake, C. S. M., Corr, H. F. J., Rott, H., Skvarca, P. & Young, N. W. Breakup and conditions for stability of the northern Larsen Ice Shelf, Antarctica. Nature 391, 778–780 (1998).
Google Scholar
Reese, R., Gudmundsson, G. H., Levermann, A. & Winkelmann, R. The far reach of ice-shelf thinning in Antarctica. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 53–57 (2018).
Google Scholar
Fürst, J. et al. The safety band of antarctic ice shelves. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 479–482 (2016).
Google Scholar
Fox-Kemper, B. et al. Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2021).
Rignot, E. et al. Accelerated ice discharge from the Antarctic Peninsula following the collapse of Larsen B Ice Shelf. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L18401 (2004).
Google Scholar
Scambos, T. A., Bohlander, J. A., Shuman, C. A. & Skvarca, P. Glacier acceleration and thinning after ice shelf collapse in the Larsen B embayment, Antarctica. Geophys. Res. Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020670 (2004).
Robin, G. d. Q. & Adie, R. J. in Antarctic Research (eds Priestley, R. E., Adie, R. J. & Robin, G. d. Q.) 100–117 (Butterworths, London, 1964).
Mercer, J. H. West Antarctic ice sheet and CO2 greenhouse effect: a threat of disaster. Nature 271, 321–325 (1978).
Google Scholar
Vaughan, D. & Doake, C. Recent atmospheric warming and retreat of ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula. Nature 379, 328–331 (1996).
Google Scholar
Cook, A. & Vaughan, D. Overview of areal changes of the ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula over the past 50 years. Cryosphere 4, 77–98 (2010).
Google Scholar
Weertman, J. Stability of the junction of an ice sheet and an ice shelf. J. Glaciol. 13, 3–11 (1974).
Google Scholar
Schoof, C. Ice sheet grounding line dynamics: steady states, stability, and hysteresis. J. Geophys. Res. 112, F03S28 (2007).
Google Scholar
DeConto, R. & Pollard, D. Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise. Nature 531, 591–597 (2016).
Google Scholar
Bassis, J. N. et al. Stability of ice shelves and ice cliffs in a changing climate. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet Sci. 52, 221–247 (2024).
Google Scholar
Davison, B. et al. Annual mass budget of Antarctic ice shelves from 1997 to 2021. Sci. Adv. 9, eadi0186 (2023).
Google Scholar
Paolo, F., Fricker, H. & Padman, L. Volume loss from Antarctic ice shelves is accelerating. Science 348, 327–331 (2015).
Google Scholar
Kittel, C. et al. Diverging future surface mass balance between the Antarctic ice shelves and grounded ice sheet. Cryosphere 15, 1215–1236 (2021).
Google Scholar
van Wessem, J. M., van den Broeke, M. R., Wouters, B. & Lhermitte, S. Variable temperature thresholds of melt pond formation on antarctic ice shelves. Nat. Clim. Change 13, 161–166 (2023).
Google Scholar
Timmermann, R. & Hellmer, H. H. Southern Ocean warming and increased ice shelf basal melting in the twenty-first and twenty-second centuries based on coupled ice-ocean finite-element modelling. Ocean Dyn. 63, 1011–1026 (2013).
Google Scholar
Mathiot, P. & Jourdain, N. Southern Ocean warming and Antarctic ice shelf melting in conditions plausible by late 23rd century in a high-end scenario. Ocean Sci. 19, 1595–1615 (2023).
Google Scholar
Scambos, T. A., Hulbe, C., Fahnestock, M. & Bohlander, J. The link between climate warming and break-up of ice shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula. J. Glaciol. 46, 516–530 (2000).
Google Scholar
Scambos, T., Hulbe, C. & Fahnestock, M. in Antarctic Peninsula Climate Variability: Historical and Paleoenvironmental Perspectives (eds Domack, E., Levente, A., Burnet, A., Bindschadler, R., Convey, P. & Kirby, M.) 79–92 (American Geophysical Union, Washington DC, 2003).
Skvarca, P., De Angelis, H. & Zakrajsek, A. F. Climatic conditions, mass balance and dynamics of Larsen B Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, prior to collapse. Ann. Glaciol. 39, 557–562 (2004).
Google Scholar
Lai, C.-Y. et al. Vulnerability of Antarctica’s ice shelves to meltwater-driven fracture. Nature 584, 574–578 (2020).
Google Scholar
Shepherd, A., Wingham, D., Payne, T. & Skvarca, P. Larsen Ice Shelf has progressively thinned. Science 302, 856–859 (2003).
Google Scholar
Lhermitte, S., Wouters, B. & HiRISE Team. The triggers for Conger Ice Shelf demise: long-term weakening vs. short-term collapse, EGU–16400 (2023).
Walker, C. et al. The multi-decadal collapse of East Antarctica’s Conger-Glenzer Ice Shelf. Nat. Geosci. 17, 1240–1248 (2024).
Google Scholar
Wild, C. T. et al. Weakening of the pinning point buttressing Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica. Cryosphere 16, 397–417 (2022).
Google Scholar
Lenaerts, J. T. M. et al. Climate and surface mass balance of coastal West Antarctica resolved by regional climate modelling. Ann. Glaciol. 59, 29–41 (2018).
Google Scholar
Donat-Magnin, M. et al. Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Cryosphere 15, 571–593 (2021).
Google Scholar
Rignot, E., Vaughan, D. G., Schmeltz, M., Dupont, T. & MacAyeal, D. Acceleration of Pine island and Thwaites glaciers, west Antarctica. Ann. Glaciol. 34, 189–194 (2002).
Google Scholar
Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Morlighem, M., Seroussi, H. & Scheuchl, B. Widespread, rapid grounding line retreat of Pine Island, Thwaites, Smith, and Kohler glaciers, West Antarctica, from 1992 to 2011. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 3502–3509 (2014).
Google Scholar
Lhermitte, S. et al. Damage accelerates ice shelf instability and mass loss in Amundsen Sea Embayment. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 117, 24735–24741 (2020).
Google Scholar
Seroussi, H. et al. Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty. Cryosphere 17, 5197–5217 (2023).
Google Scholar
Eyring, V. et al. Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 1937–1958 (2016).
Google Scholar
Jourdain, N. C., Amory, C., Kittel, C. & Durand, G. Changes in Antarctic surface conditions and potential for ice shelf hydrofracturing from 1850 to 2200. Cryosphere 19, 1641–1674 (2025).
Google Scholar
Burgard, C., Jourdain, N., Reese, R., Jenkins, A. & Mathiot, P. An assessment of basal melt parameterisations for Antarctic ice shelves. Cryosphere 16, 4931–4975 (2022).
Google Scholar
Burgard, C. et al. Emulating present and future simulations of melt rates at the base of Antarctic ice shelves with neural networks. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 15, e2023MS003829 (2023).
Google Scholar
Park, J.-Y. et al. Future sea-level projections with a coupled atmosphere–ocean–ice-sheet model. Nat. Commun. 14, 636 (2023).
Google Scholar
Coulon, V. et al. Disentangling the drivers of future Antarctic ice loss with a historically calibrated ice-sheet model. Cryosphere 18, 653–681 (2024).
Google Scholar
Morlighem, M. et al. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet may not be vulnerable to marine ice cliff instability during the 21st century. Sci. Adv. 10, eado7794 (2024).
Google Scholar
Morris, E. M. & Vaughan, D. G. in Antarctic Peninsula Climate Variability: Historical and Paleoenvironmental Perspectives (eds Domack, E., Levente, A., Burnet, A., Bindschadler, R., Convey, P. & Kirby, M.) 61–68 (American Geophysical Union, 2003).
Benn, D. et al. Rapid fragmentation of Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf. Cryosphere 16, 2545–2564 (2022).
Google Scholar
Wild, C. et al. Rift propagation signals the last act of the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf despite low basal melt rates. J. Glaciol. 70, e21 (2024).
Google Scholar
De Rydt, J. & Naughten, K. Geometric amplification and suppression of ice-shelf basal melt in West Antarctica. Cryosphere 18, 1863–1888 (2024).
Google Scholar
Bradley, A. T., Bett, D. T., Dutrieux, P., De Rydt, J. & Holland, P. R. The influence of Pine Island ice shelf calving on basal melting. J. Geophys. Res. 127, e2022JC018621 (2022).
Google Scholar
Beadling, R. et al. Representation of Southern Ocean properties across coupled model intercomparison project generations: CMIP3 to CMIP6. J. Clim. 33, 6555–6581 (2020).
Google Scholar
Heuzé, C. Antarctic bottom water and North Atlantic deep water in CMIP6 models. Ocean Sci. 17, 59–90 (2021).
Google Scholar
Smith, R. et al. Coupling the U.K. Earth System Model to dynamic models of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 13, e2021MS002520 (2021).
Google Scholar
Martin, D. F., Cornford, S. L. & Payne, A. J. Millennial-scale vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to regional ice shelf collapse. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 1467–1475 (2019).
Google Scholar
Rignot, E. et al. Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from 1979–2017. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 116, 1095–1103 (2019).
Google Scholar
Morlighem, M. MEaSUREs BedMachine Antarctica, Version 2 (2020) (NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center; accessed 6 October 2025).
Jourdain, N. C. nicojourdain/CMIP6_data_to_ISMIP6_grid: v1.0. Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12755910 (2024).
Jourdain, N. et al. A protocol for calculating basal melt rates in the ISMIP6 Antarctic ice sheet projections. Cryosphere 14, 3111–3134 (2020).
Google Scholar
Beckmann, A. & Goosse, H. A parameterization of ice shelf-ocean interaction for climate models. Ocean Model. 5, 157–170 (2003).
Google Scholar
Holland, P., Jenkins, A. & Holland, D. The response of ice shelf basal melting to variations in ocean temperature. J. Clim. 21, 2558–2572 (2008).
Google Scholar
Little, C. M., Gnanadesikan, A. & Oppenheimer, M. How ice shelf morphology controls basal melting. J. Geophys. Res. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JC005197 (2009).
Jenkins, A. et al. West Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat in the Amundsen Sea driven by decadal oceanic variability. Nat. Geosci. 11, 733–738 (2018).
Google Scholar
Lazeroms, W., Jenkins, A., Gudmunsson, G. & van de Wal, R. Modelling present-day basal melt rates for Antarctic ice shelves using a parametrization of buoyant meltwater plumes. Cryosphere 12, 49–70 (2018).
Google Scholar
Lazeroms, W., Jenkins, A., Rienstra, S. & van de Wal, R. An analytical derivation of ice-shelf basal melt based on the dynamics of meltwater plumes. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 49, 917–939 (2019).
Google Scholar
Reese, R., Albrecht, T., Mengel, M., Asay-Davis, X. & Winkelmann, R. Antarctic sub-shelf melt rates via PICO. Cryosphere 12, 1969–1985 (2018).
Google Scholar
Lambert, E. & Burgard, C. Brief communication: sensitivity of Antarctic ice shelf melting to ocean warming across basal melt models. Cryosphere 19, 2495–2505 (2025).
Google Scholar
Madec, G. & the NEMO System Team. NEMO ocean engine reference manual. Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1464816 (2019).
Tsujino, H. et al. JRA-55 based surface dataset for driving ocean-sea-ice models (JRA55-do). Ocean Model. 130, 79–139 (2018).
Google Scholar
Rignot, E., Jacobs, S., Mouginot, J. & Scheuchl, B. Ice-shelf melting around Antarctica. Science 341, 266–270 (2013).
Google Scholar
Gallée, H. & Schayes, G. Development of a three-dimensional meso-γ primitive equation model: katabatic winds simulation in the area of Terra Nova Bay, Antarctica. Mon. Weather Rev. 122, 671–685 (1994).
Google Scholar
Franco, B., Fettweis, X., Lang, C. & Erpicum, M. Impact of spatial resolution on the modelling of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance between 1990–2010, using the regional climate model MAR. Cryosphere 6, 695–711 (2012).
Google Scholar
Noël, B. et al. Higher Antarctic ice sheet accumulation and surface melt rates revealed at 2 km resolution. Nat. Commun. 14, 7949 (2023).
Google Scholar
Sun, S. et al. Antarctic ice sheet response to sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse (ABUMIP). J. Glaciol. 66, 891–904 (2020).
Google Scholar
Gagliardini, O. et al. Capabilities and performance of Elmer/Ice, a new-generation ice sheet model. Geosci. Model Dev. 6, 1299–1318 (2013).
Google Scholar
Brondex, J., Gillet-Chaulet, F. & Gagliardini, O. Sensitivity of centennial mass loss projections of the Amundsen basin to the friction law. Cryosphere 13, 177–195 (2019).
Google Scholar
Klein, E. et al. Annual cycle in flow of Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica: contribution of variable basal melting. J. Glaciol. 66, 861–875 (2020).
Google Scholar
Mosbeux, C., Padman, L., Klein, E., Bromirski, P. & Fricker, H. Seasonal variability in Antarctic ice shelf velocities forced by sea surface height variations. Cryosphere 17, 2585–2606 (2023).
Google Scholar
Gillet-Chaulet, F. et al. Assimilation of surface velocities acquired between 1996 and 2010 to constrain the form of the basal friction law under Pine Island Glacier. Geophys. Res. Lett. 43, 10,311–10,321 (2016).
Google Scholar
Gudmundsson, G. H., Paolo, F. S., Adusumilli, S. & Fricker, H. Instantaneous Antarctic ice sheet mass loss driven by thinning ice shelves. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 13903–13909 (2019).
Google Scholar
Meehl, G. et al. Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models. Sci. Adv. 6, eaba1981 (2020).
Google Scholar
Rignot, E., Mouginot, J. & Scheuchl, B. MEaSUREs InSAR-based Antarctica Ice Velocity map, Version 2 (2017) (NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center; accessed 6 October 2025).
van Wessem, J. M. et al. Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2—Part 2: Antarctica (1979–2016). Cryosphere 12, 1479–1498 (2018).
Google Scholar
Forster, P. et al. in The Earth’s Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) 923–1054 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2021).
Mastrandrea, M. et al. Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2010).
Burgard, C. et al. Data and scripts to reproduce figures from “Ocean warming threatens the viability of 60% of Antarctic ice shelves”. Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13768758 (2025).
نشر لأول مرة على: www.nature.com
تاريخ النشر: 2025-10-29 02:00:00
الكاتب: C. Burgard
تنويه من موقع “yalebnan.org”:
تم جلب هذا المحتوى بشكل آلي من المصدر:
www.nature.com
بتاريخ: 2025-10-29 02:00:00.
الآراء والمعلومات الواردة في هذا المقال لا تعبر بالضرورة عن رأي موقع “yalebnan.org”، والمسؤولية الكاملة تقع على عاتق المصدر الأصلي.
ملاحظة: قد يتم استخدام الترجمة الآلية في بعض الأحيان لتوفير هذا المحتوى.




